An industry group lowered their forecast for 2009 home loan originations by more than 25% as higher FHA mortgage rates stifle mortgage refinancing activity.  The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that lenders will make $2.03 trillion in new home loans this year, down by more than $700 billion from its forecast in March.  The Washington-based group attributed $84 billion to reduce mortgage lending on home purchases.  The rest of the decline would be from fewer FHA refinance loans and “very low” volumes on an affordability loan program overseen by mortgage agencies FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, MBA said in a statement.

FHA mortgage rates have risen from record lows since the MBA’s prior forecast as have Treasury yields, which spiked amid a flood of debt issuance needed to fund federal rescue programs.

In March, the MBA boosted its forecast of mortgage originations by more than $800 billion but reversed most of that expected increase with Monday’s revision.  Average 30-year loan rates have slipped from recent peaks but at 5.38 % last week remain well above the record low 4.78 % set in April, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday.  The higher mortgage rates have quelled home refinancing demand.  The MBA’s index of mortgage refinancing applications in the week ended June 5 sank to 2,605.7 after hovering between about 5,100 and 6,800 from the March 20 week through the end of April.

Estimates of home loans moving through the Home Affordable Refinance Program, using Fannie and Freddie, have also fallen short.  According to Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist, “While generally accepted estimates were that around 1.5 to 2 million borrowers might avail themselves of this FHA loan program, with many more potentially eligible, to date only about 13,000 loans have been completed according to press reports.”

Though the FHA home loans created under this program should increase, volume is unlikely to come near forecasts, he said.  FHA home purchase loans are also expected to be less than expected in March. Falling prices mean lower loan sizes, and homes bought in foreclosure and by investors are often done for cash, the trade group said.

The MBA expects total existing home sales in 2009 to drop 1.2 % from last year to 4.8 million units. New home sales will slump about 27 % to 352,000 units, the group said.”Median home prices for new and existing homes will likely continue to fall, dropping by about 10 % from 2008 levels, but leveling off in 2010 as the economy improves,” Brinkmann said.

Expanded opportunities for Fannie Mae to Fannie Mae refinance loans through Refinance Plus (manual underwriting) and DU Refi Plus.  A new solution for borrowers with LTVs above 8% who currently may not be able to refinance because of existing MI coverage requirement.

Loan To Values’ up to 105% on the new loan and additional underwriting flexibilities.  See FHA loan Announcements 09-04 and 09-13, the FAQs document, and other mortgage resources provided via the links below for details on Fannie Mae’s refinance effort.

Flexible MI Requirements to Assist Borrowers with Home Price Declines:  Fannie Mae’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), has authorized us to provide refinancing opportunities for loans we currently hold or have guaranteed with current LTVs up to 105%, with specific flexibility regarding MI coverage for FHA loans with LTVs above 80 %.

The following general guidelines apply: For existing FHA loans with original LTV ratios at or below 80% and no existing MI coverage, the new refinanced loan does not require MI coverage.

For existing FHA home loans with original LTV ratios over 80% that currently have MI coverage in force, the new refinance requires the level of insurance coverage in force on the existing loan or our standard level of insurance coverage. The FHA mortgage lender is encouraged to use its best efforts to obtain MI coverage that provides the lowest cost option available to the borrower.

For existing mortgage loans with original LTV ratios over 80% that do not have MI currently in force due to prior cancellation or termination in accordance with the Selling Guide or the Servicing Guide, the new refinance does not require MI coverage.

See FHFA’s Statement on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Refinance Initiatives available at the link below for details on this new authority

Refinance Plus (Manual Underwriting)

Refi Plus simplifies the process of refinancing loans that are already in a lender’s servicing portfolio. This product supports the new 105 % maximum LTV and MI flexibilities for LTVs over 80 %.

DU Refinance Plus

DU Refinance Plus provides increased efficiencies for the origination and underwriting of Fannie Mae to Fannie Mae limited cash-out refinance transactions in DU. Eligible loans identified in DU receive increased underwriting flexibilities, including expanded eligibility criteria and DU minimum documentation requirements.

The DU Version 7.1 April Update release and May Update release will implement these underwriting flexibilities. Release Notes and FAQs for the May Update release (implementing the weekend of May 2, 2009) and updated Release Notes for the April Update release are now available. See the DU Release Notes page on eFannieMae.com for details (available at the link below).